Gambling State University: Week Three

His deep passes are softer than Lance Bass at the Playboy Mansion
Photo Credit: Jeffrey Beall

Coffee is for closers. Guess what I’m drinking right now? Coffee. Why? Because like Ricky Roma in Glengarry Glen Ross, I’m a closer. Last week I told you to take the Ravens, Bengals and 49ers. The Ravens were +3 if you took them anytime near Sunday. Well, the Ravens lost by 1. That’s a win for us. The Bengals were -7 and won by 7. Which means if you took the Bengals, you pushed. Hey, better than a loss. The Niners were also -7. The Niners won by eight even though it wasn’t as close as the final score indicated. Which means, yes, if you took the Niners you won again. Overall, if you stuck with me, you didn’t lose a game and went 2-0-1 in Week Two, which puts my record on the season at 3-1-1. Our bankroll, if you’ve taken my recommended wagers, is at +490. And unlike Enron, I’m not skewing the earnings reports. That’s one thing you have to love about investing in the sports wagering world, while the odds are against you, you won’t wake up one day to find out you were lied to about the final score (here’s looking at you Wall Street).

More after the jump:

The Pick: Houston Texans -2 @DEN
Last week I told you that 49ers were one of the best teams, if not the best team in the NFL. Well, right now it looks like I hit the nail on that head. Here’s something else I want to tell you. The Texans are the second best team in the NFL and they have just the right group of guys to beat the Broncos. Let me, let you in on a little secret. Peyton Manning can’t throw the deep ball anymore. How do I know? He threw for three picks against the Falcons and each one of them was in an attempt to go deep. Additionally, when the Broncos were lining up for a Hail Mary at the end of the game, it was rookie backup quarterback Brock Osweiler who was called upon to throw it, not Peyton. You just know Wade Phillips and the Houston D will exploit the fact that Peyton’s nerves in his arm are working about as well as Arnold Schwarzenegger’s arm in Terminator 2 [when he loses the (expletive) thing]. The Texans in all likelihood will play a cover-two defense, which is a scheme that takes away the short ball and challenges you to throw deep. When Peyton does take his shots downfield, he’ll miss Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas. My prediction is that he won’t try this often, but when Peyton does, he’ll get picked by the talented “D” of the Houston Texans. Moreover, look for the Texans to apply pressure to Manning, battering him like any female Chris Brown encounters.

In case you were unaware, Peyton also knows he can’t throw deep. It’s not just me. How do I know? Peyton told Bill Parcells this before the season started in an intimate phone conversation. What did Parcells say? The Tuna told Peyton that if Jamie Moyer can get by in the Majors without much of a fastball, then Peyton can get by without being able to throw the deep ball. While we don’t know whether this is true, I’m willing to wager that it’s not. The Texans are just too talented and they, in my eyes, are the class of the AFC (not the Patriots).

The Texans also have a solid run defense, so Willis McGahee should be stopped from doing anything noteworthy. You know what the Texans do on offense and look for them to do more of it here against the Broncos. Champ Bailey is too old to cover Andre Johnson. Bottom-line. Arian Foster will be running wild against the Broncos defense and Matt Schaub will be Matt Schaub. Peyton with his brains, not his arm, will keep this respectable, but it just won’t be enough. If you haven’t gotten lucky enough to join the Mile High club yet, you’re about to. Take the Texans in Mile High.
The Prediction: Texans 27, Broncos 20
The Bet: $400

The Pick: Atlanta Falcons +3 vs. SD
The Atlanta Falcons are legit. The Chargers, as per usual, might be faker than a three dollar bill. The question is: do we know whether the Chargers are a bunch of fakers? I’m willing to wager my money that they are. The Chargers' blowout win versus the Titans tells me nothing. The Titans have lost twice this year in blowout fashion. Tennessee can’t function on offense and can’t stop anyone on defense, so the Chargers blowing them out means nothing to me. The game that does tell me something about the Chargers was their matchup versus the Raiders. Unlike most of the East Coast, I watched that entire game. The game went until 1:30 AM so you can see what type of dedication you’re dealing with here. What I took away from that game was this: the Chargers struggled to beat a team that turned over the ball various times on the wrong side of the fifty. In case you didn’t catch the highlights, the Raiders had their backup punter in as their starter got hurt. Well, their backup punter had not one, not two, but three miscues all resulting in Charger field goals. What should bother the Chargers is that they weren’t able to get touchdowns from any of the Raiders miscues. The Raiders defense isn’t anything special either. The Falcons, on the other hand, have looked impressive in both their performances and, dare I say, against better teams. In my mind the Falcons are a top five team. Matt Ryan is playing at an extremely high level. Tony Gonzalez refuses to age. And you can’t stop both Julio Jones and Roddy White; you have to pick one, which means the other one is your afternoon nightmare. Now many could see this game as an emotional comedown for the Falcons after a significant Monday Night win, but I don’t. The Falcons are focused this year, excluding thunder thighs Mr. Michael Turner, who likes to enjoy a few cocktails after a victory and then get in a car. But what can I say, I can’t fault a man after my own editor’s heart.  But forget Turner, he’ll play Sunday, which will take pressure off Matty Ice and allow for the play action to get Julio and Roddy more involved.

This game will probably be close, but the Falcons should prove to be too much for the overrated Chargers in the end (doesn’t it seem like they’re overrated every year?).

Special shout out to good friend Joe Hanley, who suggests that I don’t win my bets. Well big guy, if you don’t believe in my bets, believe in my bankroll (+490) and remember these two picks come Sunday. I’m smelling a Falcons three point win here, and in case you were wondering I have the smell of a wolfhound that just won the Westminister Dog Show.
The Prediction: Falcons 23, Chargers 20
The Bet: $150

If you want to try another kind of NFL related gaming go to an online casino, with one of the most popular Gaming Club online casino being the game $5 Million Touchdown. One reason for the popularity of this game is the fact that it isn’t called $5 Million Touchdown for nothing – that’s the size of the top jackpot. However the game bonuses requiring you to pass from player to player in an attempt to score a touchdown is another reason, especially given the high quality of the video graphics involved. Furthermore, with the presence of a wild symbol (the referee) on the NFL-related reels, you have a brilliant chance of winning something – even if you don’t scoop that amazing maximum jackpot.


About Starbonell

Starbonell is the co-founder of Sons of Roto and one of the most insightful and colorful fantasy analysts in the game. Mixing intelligent and well-researched advice with an entertaining style of writing that is easy to digest, Starbonell is the king of info-tainment.