Anthony Rizzo Projection

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2011 AAA: .365 AVG, 42 Runs, 16 HR, 63 RBI, 5 SB (200 AB)

Starbonell recently soliloquized upon Anthony Rizzo in his Peabody Award winning MLB Real Talk series, but with the team’s plans to call up the First Baseman on Thursday I wanted to go on record with an official projection. So project I will.

The Rizzo is going to transform into the Young Dirty Bizzo when he’s promoted from the PCL to Petco on Thursday. The Tuscon Pades home stadium scores a 92 in HR for Left Handed Batters while Petco Park scores an atrocious 59 [Stat Corner]. The PCL is a hitter friendly league, the NL West is not. I think most people understand the video game numbers Rizzo has posted in AAA (.365/.444/.715) are not going to transfer to the majors. In 2010 Rizzo hit 20 HR in 400 double-A At Bats with Portland. The Seadogs home ballpark scores a 97 for LHB so he’s accustomed to hitter friendly fields. Petco will be a rude awakening for the highly touted prospect. In fifteen weeks with San Diego, Rizzo could hit as few as 12 HR or as many as 18 HR. Another wild card is his BABIP. His current .413 average of balls in play is ridonkulous. He did post a .360 BABIP in high-A ball (2008), but that came with a 30% LD%. He’s more of a 17%-18% LD% hitter so we could see his BABIP fall down to the .300 range in San Diego. What I see with Rizzo is a Fly Ball hitter who has plus power, a good eye at the plate (11% BB%) and a little speed. We’re going to use a 26% K% (24% in AAA) and a .313 BABIP here. Projection .263 AVG, 16 HR, 3 SB, 54 Runs, 56 RBI (350 AB)

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