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Brandon Allen Forecast

The D-Backs have called up Paul Copperschmidt aka Brandon Allen
Photo Credit: salvatoredbacks

Brandon Allen has been recalled by the Arizona Diamondbacks. He’ll be given a chance to take over duties at First Base from Juan Miranda and Xavier Nady. He’s no Paul Goldschmidt, but Allen does have a small contingency of fans who’ve been awaiting this day. The 25-year old slugger was hitting .305/.426/.577 with 18 HR and 7 SB at AAA-Reno so we should definitely take notice of his promotion. After the jump: more words and numbers, including your Brandon Allen forecast.

Alright I went as long as I could before delivering the bad news. I had to lure you in before hitting you with the bait-and-switch. Brandon Allen is going to strikeout in a large percentage of his At Bats. While his stat line in AAA is great, he is 25-years old and this is his third season at this level. Then there is the PCL factor. While Chase Field is beneficial for Left Handed Batters it’s not as hitter friendly as the ballpark in Reno. Neither is the pitching or defense. Allen was striking out in 29.5% of his At Bats in AAA, this could get ugly.

[Editor’s Note: this forecast will make the assumption of Allen playing full time]

At Bats: 220 (65 games)
Strikeouts: 76 (34.5% K%)
Fly Balls: 62 (43% FB%)
Home Runs: 10 (16.1% HR/FB%)
BABIP: .321 (43 singles, doubles, triples)
Batting Average: .241
Stolen Bases: 3

Allen definitely has power and launches plenty of Fly Balls, but the Strikeouts will be a problem. I feel like I was generous with the 34.5% K% as he has a 40% K% though 149 MLB At Bats and hasn’t shown any improvement this year. I do not believe Brandon Allen is the answer to the Diamondbacks lack of production at First Base. The Paul Goldschmidt brigade should fear not. The official Brandon Allen forecast calls for a .241 AVG, 29 Runs, 10 HR, 31 RBI, 3 SB (220 AB), but again, I do not believe he actually logs 220 AB. The 1% owned Brandon Allen should be reserved for NL-Only leagues.

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