Wilin_Rosario

Fantasy Baseball 2013: Tiers, Not Fears (Catcher)


Like the Clipse’s debut album, just call him “Lord Wilin”
Photo Credit: Charles Atkeison µg

 

Catchers are like condoms: no matter what you think about them, you need them. Sure you can punt the catcher position or go raw dog, but why take the chance? The upside of ditching the rubber or catcher is amazingly better sex and the opportunity to pick up a more useful roster piece, respectively. The downside? A gaping hole (one of which is on your roster… the other just delivered a baby).

 

So rather than pass on doing your due diligence in surveying the catcher landscape, make the jump and find out how the position shakes out:

 

The Dynamic Duo

The two guys who make up this entire tier are a step above the rest because not only do they bring advanced approaches to the plate rarely seen at the catcher position, but they are also counted on to be key cogs to their respective teams’ offenses.

 

1. Buster Posey

Though he looks more like your nerdy paperboy than an elite fantasy catcher, Posey enters the 2013 season at the top of the heap. The Giants catcher is a gifted offensive player, but one of the reasons he sits atop the backstop rankings is his playing time. Posey netted 610 plate appearances in 2012 despite coming off a gruesome leg injury the previous year. That put him in a position to pile up the counting stats as the team’s cleanup hitter (103 RBIs and 78 Rs), while allowing his .336 BA to make a big impact on fantasy rosters. It’s very possible that Posey’s power regresses a bit since he performed right around his ceiling level, but that doesn’t change the fact that he’s the best backstop on the board.

 

2. Joe Mauer

Like Posey, Mauer will be among the league leaders among catchers in PAs. Posey possesses more power, but Mauer still holds plenty of value as a three-hole hitter who should have little trouble posting another 80-plus RBI/R season (barring his health). 

 

The “They Might Be Giants” Gang

While the players in this tier aren’t quite where Posey and Mauer are, they are all extremely talented offensive players and any of them could finish the season as the no. 1 ranked catcher in fantasy.

 

3. Matt Wieters

Every year people predict the Matt Wieters break out, and every year they are disappointed. At this point, fantasy owners should just accept Wieters for who he is: a 25 HR threat who can put up solid counting stats as a middle-of-the-order bat in Baltimore. Sure it’s feasible that he has his career-best season in 2013 at the age of 27, but nothing in his major-league peripheral profile suggests he’s about to post a 30 HR/100 RBI season. Of course, he doesn’t have to perform at a Mike Piazza-like level to finish as a top five fantasy backstop, and the sooner you accept that and resist the urge to reach for him, the better off you will be.

 

4. Victor Martinez

V-Mart’s standing as a top five backstop despite not playing at all in 2012 tells you just how weak the catcher position is. He won’t hit for a ton of power (.141 ISO in ‘12) and he’s 34 years old, but he can hit over .300 and should rack up the counting stats hitting behind Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder.

 

5. Carlos Santana

Last year, I expected Santana to not only pace the catching position, but to play like a first-round caliber player. Needless to say, I had enough egg on my face to make a goddamn buffet's worth of omelettes. My thinking was that Santana’s PAs (600-plus the last two years), coupled with his 30 HR potential and middle-of-the-order presence, would lead to a remarkable season. Unfortunately, despite showing tremendous plate patience last year (14.9 BB% and 16.6 K%), Santana once again struggled with his batting average (.252). On top of that, his power took a step back in 2012 (.168 ISO). I still believe that his upside is as high as any catcher in fantasy, but I just think the players ranked above him are safer options.

 

The “Next Best” Brigade

Each of the dudes in this tier will be universally owned in fantasy leagues, but each of them has something holding them back from becoming part of the elite class of catchers.

 

6. Yadier Molina

Some people may be saying, “You’re Yadier mind to think that Molina isn’t a top three backstop!” First off, snappy pun. Second, Molina is ranked right where he should be. Though he enjoyed a career-high in ISO (.186), BA (.315), HRs (22), and SBs (12) in 2012, it should be noted that those were career-highs. In other words, that’s as good as it will get for Molina. His .315 BA looks mighty lucky considering his .316 BABIP. Sure his BABIP and BA were very close to one another in 2011 as well, but you can’t believe that Molina will continue to rack up base hits on so many balls put in play. As for his power, don’t expect more gains in that department. Molina supporters will point out that this is the second year in a row that his power has taken a step forward, but they fail to point out that he’s only topped the double-digit HR mark twice. Granted, he’s 30 and in the power prime of his career, but unless he’s fueling up on PEDs, I don’t expect him to suddenly be a consistent 20-plus bomb threat. I feel like I’m giving Molina plenty of credit by ranking him sixth on this list considering he’s probably reached his offensive ceiling.

 

7. Wilin Rosario

Rosario carries serious power for a backstop as he has a .260 ISO over his first 483 big-league PAs. He’s 24, can still improve, and is expected to hit in the middle of Colorado’s lineup. Of course, while his power has been great, it’s hard to expect him to maintain his current big-league 25.0 HR/FB (even in Coors Field). Also, Rosario’s struggles with strikeouts (14.5 SwStr% and 23.2 K% in 2012) could make him a BA liability.

 

8. Mike Napoli

The dude has AVN, which is a disease that literally causes cells in your bones to die and has the word “necrosis” in the fucking name of it. If you think Napoli is making it through the entire 2013 season without at least one trip to the DL, then you’re more gullible than a sea bird. Napoli’s power should play well at Fenway (career .248 ISO), but the health concerns hold him back.

 

The Hopeful Hooligans

There’s reason to believe that each of the players in this tier can turn in very productive fantasy seasons, but some “faith leaping” is required.

 

9. Jesus Montero

Still only 23 years old, Montero’s upside is obvious. His 24.6 LD% means he is driving the ball, so his .126 ISO from last season should improve (plus, the Mariners are bringing in the fences at Safeco Field). Montero also has the ability to hit for a decent average (.270-.280) and will be hitting in the middle of Seattle’s upgraded offense, so there’s a chance he could turn into a profitable draft-day fantasy catcher.

 

10. Miguel Montero

Hitting in the middle of Arizona’s lineup has allowed Montero to rack up over 80 RBIs each of the past two years, but his power ceiling is capped (18 HRs highest season mark). Also, his strikeouts went up in 2012 (22.7 K% and 11.3 SwStr%). There is a belief that Montero is a “safe” fantasy option, but you can get comparable value for less if you wait on drafting your catcher.

 

11. A.J. Pierzynski

No one is expecting Pierzynski to top (or even duplicate) his 27 HRs from last season, but the move to Texas could keep him above the 20 bomb mark for 2013. The douchey backstop is turning 36 years old, but he’ll cruise to 500-plus PAs, which is particularly valuable for a fantasy catcher.

 

12. Ryan Doumit

You’d be a Doum-ass to think that his ceiling extends past his 2012 production (.275 BA, 18 HRs, 75 RBIs). The Twins limited his catching duties last year, and it worked out well as the injury-prone Doumit saw a career-high 528 PAs. However, all the health in the world can’t hide the fact that he is swinging-and-missing more often and playing his home games in a pitcher’s park.

 

13. Salvador Perez

With a fair share of fantasy groupies already, Perez has become a popular draft/auction target at the catcher position. He’s the latest in a long line of Kansas City Royals whose perceived value far exceeds their actual fantasy value. Perez can no doubt hit for average (.311 BA in 463 big league PAs), but his .110 ISO in the minors and spacious home park portend mediocre power numbers.

 

14. J.P. Arencibia

Toronto’s offense has been upgraded and Arencibia’s playing time should not be an issue as both John Buck and Travis d’Arnaud are gone. Yet the once promising sleeper remains plagued by strikeouts and a poor batted ball profile (career 16.4 LD%). The power is enticing (.202 ISO last year), but just know that he’ll be a drain on your BA.

 

15. Jonathan Lucroy

Lucroy showed the type of skill-set you like to see from your fantasy catcher. His .193 ISO in 2012 gives hope for a high-teens HR total and his ability to make a lot of contact helped him post a sweet .320 BA. Then again, he never really showed much power in the minors, so it’s very possible the Milwaukee backstop will simply register Luc-warm numbers.

 

The “Talented, But Flawed” Free-Fallers

Each of these dudes has (at some point or another) been beloved by the fantasy community, but all of them have seen their stock take a hit. 

 

16. Alex Avila

After undergoing platelet-rich plasma injections in the offseason on the knee that many thought was behind his wretched 2012, Avila is reportedly pain-free and the Tigers believe he can once again be an offensive threat. He certainly knows how to get on base (14.1 BB% in 2012) and regularly makes hard contact (at least a 21.5 LD% in each of the last three years). He’s just one year removed from a breakout season, so while you hate to draft a catcher with a history of knee problems, you could do a lot worse than Avila.

 

17. Brian McCann

My how the “pretty good” have fallen. McCann will miss at least the first two weeks of the season thanks to offseason shoulder surgery, but we’ve all seen how shoulder problems can destroy a player’s power. Even though he’s entering a walk year and has hit over 20 HRs each of the last five years, McCann is a risky play.

 

18. Carlos Ruiz

And you thought Adderall was only for people who wanted to do blow, but without the guilt. Ruiz had a great year in 2012 (.325 BA and .215 ISO), but it’s hard to see him putting up those kind of numbers again. He’s 34 years old, and the dude taking over starting catcher duties while Ruiz serves a 25-game suspension might creep into the Holly ‘Raller’s playing time going forward.

 

19. Jarrod Saltalamacchia

The power Saltalamacchia brings is what sneaks him into this tier (.232 ISO last year). However, he has not one, but THREE guys that might cut into his backstop PAs (David Ross, Mike Napoli, Ryan Lavarnway), and has been injury-prone throughout his entire career. He also strikes out a ton and is a career .239 hitter.

 

The “Settle With A Sigh” Syndicate

Unless your plan was to wait until very late to snag a catcher, you are rostering each of the backstops in this tier somewhat reluctantly with a shred of hope that they are a diamond in the rough.

 

20. Derek Norris

The career minor league numbers show a catcher with some serious offensive upside (17.7 BB% and .209 ISO). He even has the ability to steal 8-11 bases. Problem is, he was horrendous last year. Until he reins in the strikeouts (28.4 K% and .201 BA last year), Norris will become a shaky fantasy option.

 

21. Tyler Flowers

The departure of A.J. Pierzynski sets Flowers up to see the lion’s share of playing time behind the plate in Chicago, but how good can he possibly be? Sure Flowers has shown plus pop for a backstop (.199 ISO last year, .200 in 2011, .209 in minors), but the strikeouts are scary bad (33.8 K% in bigs and .213 BA last year). He’s sort of a poor man’s Arencibia, but even J.P. can crack a couple of “human fan” jokes about the White Sox catcher.

 

22. Chris Iannetta

Job security (signed a three-year extension) and a potent Angels offense are a couple of the perks associated with drafting Iannetta, but until he proves he can stay healthy, he’ll always be a mediocre fantasy catcher (345 PAs the most he’s ever had in a season). He’s another catcher with good power (career .190 ISO) who strikes out too much (career .236 BA).

 

23. Russell Martin

Though Martin socked 21 HRs last year, it’s hard to see him having another quality season. He’s leaving the comfy confines of Yankee Stadium (where he hit 13 of his bombs) and is already dealing with some shoulder soreness that kept him out of the WBC. The fact that he’s stayed relatively healthy the past couple of years aids his value.

 

24. Jason Castro

Injuries have derailed his career, but Castro has the ability to hit up to 15 bombs while hitting for a decent average. Also, because the Houston lineup is so atrocious, a quality season from Castro could see him accumulating a good number of counting stats as a potential middle-of-the-order bat on a team desperate to score runs.

 

25. Nick Hundley

Hundley was flat-out atrocious last year (.157 BA), but there’s still plenty of upside left in his bat. He’s capable of hitting 15 or more HRs if healthy and it sounds like the knee issue that plagued him all of last year is in the past. Yasmani Grandal is serving a 50 game suspension, so Hundley has some time to prove to the Padres that he deserves ample playing time. Plus, if Grandal stops taking whatever got him caught, perhaps his numbers will really fall off by the time he gets back to the majors.

 

The “Rest Of The Rest” Renegades

That’s not a typo. It’s hard to call these bums the “best of the rest” when the word “best” should not be associated in any way with these schlubs. Of course, because they are starting catchers or have a legit shot at some serious playing time, they belong on these rankings. 

26. A.J. Ellis

27. Welington Castillo

28. Rob Brantly

29. Kurt Suzuki

30. Erik Kratz

31. John Buck

32. Devin Mesoraco

33. Yasmani Grandal

34. Wilson Ramos

35. Evan Gattis

36. Travis d'Arnaud

37. Ryan Lavarnway

38. Hank Conger

39. Miguel Olivo

Starbonell

About Starbonell

Starbonell is the co-founder of Sons of Roto and one of the most insightful and colorful fantasy analysts in the game. Mixing intelligent and well-researched advice with an entertaining style of writing that is easy to digest, Starbonell is the king of info-tainment.

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