How soon is too soon?

This is about Brett Anderson, the soon to be most popular sleeper of all time. He will be on every single sleeper list posted on the internet. His current MDC ADP is 207, it was 243 about 2 weeks ago. People are catching on and it’s going to get worse. I am guessing his ADP will be closer to 150-160 as we near the season and he’ll go anywhere from pick 130-140 in more competitive leagues. So the question is, how soon is too soon to take everyones favorite sleeper?

For me, I have to project his 2010 season, rank him among his fellow SP and figure it out from there. His 2009 line and peripheral numbers were nice, even after a slow start:

175.1 IP, 11 wins, 4.06 ERA, 3.61 xFIP, 1.28 WHIP, 150 Ks, 7.7 k/9, 2.31 bb/9, 1.49 GB/FB

March/April: 5.01 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 5.40 k/9
May: 6.38 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 4.88 k/9
June thru September: 3.33 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 8.7 k/9

He showed great control in the minors and even when he struggled out of the gate for the A’s, his bb rate was still nice (3.09 & 2.63). He has an excellent slider (22 runs above average) and he throws it often (33%). Between the k/9, bb/9 and gb/fb I really can’t find a reason to not fall in love with this guy. So while I try to calm the inner fan boy in me, this is my 2010 projection for Mr. Anderson.

190 IP, 14 wins, 3.75 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 175 Ks

This is a rational projection and does not factor in improvement from the 22 year old. I have him ranked before Chad Billingsley and Matt Garza who go around pick 126. This is my cut off point for how soon is too soon. Let’s say pick between picks 120-125. I wouldn’t want to go any earlier than that. In a competitive league, once the Gallardo, Hamels, Kershaw, Nolasco, Ubaldo, Wandy train leaves the station, it may be time to dial up Brett’s number if you want him.

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