Kyle Seager Forecast

Kyle Seager judo chopped Chone Figgins and then wrote a song about it
Photo Credit: The News Tribune

Kyle Seager (2B/3B) made his MLB debut today. He picked a bad day to do so as Jered Weaver threw a one-Run Complete Game. Replacing Chone Figgins in the lineup, Kyle got Figgy with it going without a hit in four At Bats (2 Ks). Word has it that one of those two Strikeouts was a poor call [@ztevans]. The Seattle prospect may have stumbled out the gate, but he is someone who could be of interest to you and your fantasy squadron. Meet us after the break for a little fluffing and a rest-of-season projection.

Seager, who may be the love child of Steven Seagal and Bob Seger, has an advanced approach at the plate, a little pop in his bat and the ability to steal a few bases. His minor league stats look somewhat similar to his teammate’s Dustin Ackley (these two were teammates at UNC too). Kyle is patient at the plate (8.3%-12.4% BB%) and keeps the Strikeouts down (10.9%-16.9% K%). He hit 14 HR in high-A ball (135 games) and has 6 HR through 78 games in the high minors this season so we’re not talking about a lot of power. While he did steal 13 bases in 2010, he was caught stealing 12 times. He’s 9 for 15 in the steals department this season. His base running could use refinement. The raw stats (HR-SB) are not inspiring, but his keen eye and ability to make contact should enable him to hit the ground running. Anything is better than Chone Figgins at this point.

At Bats: 230 (65 games)
Strikeouts: 34 (14.8 K%)
Fly Balls: 73 (37% FB%)
Home Runs: 5 (6.8% HR/FB%)
BABIP: .330
Batting Average: .296
Stolen Bases: 6

When Seager hit 14 HR at High-A ball in the High Desert, the Lefty did so at a ballpark that may have the highest score for HR that I’ve ever seen: 160. To put it lightly, that was a hitter-friendly field. Jackson (AA, 66 games, 4 HR) scores a 86 in HR for Lefties. Tacoma (AAA, 12 games, 2 HR) scores a 110. SAFECO scores a 94 in HR for LHB. SAFECO is worse for Righties (84). Projecting a BABIP for Seager is tough, his minor league numbers are all over the map (.304, .390, .350, .489). If we use a .309 BABIP (which is still 18 points above the league average) his AVG would drop to .278. Seager hit 7th in the lineup tonight so we shouldn’t expect much in terms of counting stats.

The official rest-of-season forecast calls for: .296 AVG, 29 Runs, 5 HR, 27 RBI, 6 SB

I could be optimistic with the 14.8% K%. If Seager strikes out in 16.1% of his At Bats his Batting Average would drop to .287 (4 HR).

Seager may not burn up the transaction lists in standard leagues, but I’ll be placing a substantial FAAB bid in my AL-Only league. While he wasn’t a highly touted prospect (8th in the Mariners system according to Marc Huet) he did move up through the farm system quickly and handled the transition to Third Base well. Whatcha think? Will Kyle be more Steven Seagal or Katie Segal?