MLB Real Talk: 4/18/12

Like a Reimold Cowboy
Photo Credit: Keith Allison

With the waiver wire buzzing, MLB Real Talk is back discussing the long-term merits of players like Mike Aviles, Nolan Reimold, Kyle Drabek, and Jon Jay.

Work gets done after the jump:

-If I said that you could pick up the leadoff hitter for the potent Boston Red Sox offense right now, chances are, you’d race to your waiver wire the way a fine female races to my cock. Well, Mike Aviles is sitting there in 45 percent of Yahoo! leagues waiting for you. I thought Aviles was a solid sleeper coming into the season (peep my “Tiers, Not Fears” series if you don’t believe me), and with eligibility at SS, 2B, and 3B, he should be universally owned. Sure the unpredictable Bobby Valentine could toy with the lineup and remove Aviles from leadoff duties, but keep in mind that Bobby V said in the spring (when Aviles was not guaranteed a starting job) that he views Aviles as an “everyday shortstop,” so Bobby V is obviously a fan. Aviles doesn’t do any one thing particularly well when it comes to fantasy, but he can muster a 15/15 season and tally a bunch of runs hitting in front of the big boppers in Boston.

Nolan Reimold is generating a lot of buzz right now in fantasy circles, but I’m not buying the (post-)hype. All four of his HRs so far have been legit bombs, but he’s been very aggressive at the plate and has walked just once in 38 PAs. If he stays this swing-happy, pitchers will begin to take advantage. While he has shown good pop before in the pros, it’s been somewhat inconsistent (career .177 ISO in AAA). Don’t get it twisted, Reimold is absolutely worth the waiver add in case the power surge is legit. However, just keep in mind that he’s teased us before and the fact that his plate patience is actually worse right now than it has been in the past is a red flag.

-There are a lot of jokes that can be made about Bartolo Colon. He’s fat. He had fetus plasma injected into his body. Blah, blah, blah. All I care about is stats, and in Oakland, Colon should be a quality back-end fantasy arm when healthy (you know who else likes “back-end fantasy arms?” Your mom!). The long ball issues that plagued him last year in New York should be mitigated greatly by the spacious confines of his new home park. The strikeouts won’t be insane (think 6.5-7 K/9) and he’ll have his share of blow-ups, but while he’s pitching this well, he should be owned in way more leagues.

Jon Jay sucks. I only say this because he’s been getting picked up in a bunch of leagues. Dude offers no power, no speed, and no chance at helping your fantasy OF (unless you are in a very deep five-OF format—in which case, your OF still sucks with Jay). Denard Span, Raul Ibanez, David Murphy, and Luke Scott are all available in more leagues and they are all a hell of a lot better than Jay for fantasy purposes.

-Though Kyle Drabek doesn’t have terrific strikeout upside, he should be owned in more than 21 percent of Yahoo! leagues. You are likely getting a K/9 that will hover around seven, but the dude can pitch. With a mid-90s heater and the ability do induce a ton of weak contact, the groundball-generating Drabek can fill out the back of your fantasy rotation nicely. He’s improved his walk rate in the young 2012 season, and though the long ball has been a problem for him in the bigs before, he actually did a good job of limiting HRs in the minors. Solid ratios, respectable strikeouts, top prospect pedigree… yeah, he’s worth a pick-up.


About Starbonell

Starbonell is the co-founder of Sons of Roto and one of the most insightful and colorful fantasy analysts in the game. Mixing intelligent and well-researched advice with an entertaining style of writing that is easy to digest, Starbonell is the king of info-tainment.