Passenger56

Rajai Davis is Passenger 56

A Toronto speedster must take action when he finds himself trapped on First Base

As of this moment, Rajai Davis is the 56th Outfielder off the board in drafts at MockDraftCentral.com. We’re talking about an Average Draft Position of 294 (Round 25). He just happens to be my 21st ranked Outfielder (rankings and projections should be out late Tuesday). The love child of Jacoby Ellsbury and Juan Pierre is poised to produce huge profits for anyone who is lucky enough to grab him at his ADP. Make the jump for more on the man who will stop AL East terrorists dead in their tracks.

Projections and Comparisons

.295-10-107-58-60 (620 AB) Jacoby Ellsbury ADP 70
.289-6-90-49-55 (600 AB) Rajai Davis ADP 294
.284-1-99-45-56 (650 AB) Juan Pierre ADP 131
.269-5-99-49-49 (530 AB) Brett Gardner ADP 231
.266-4-88-39-55 (590 AB) Michael Bourn ADP 114
.303-1-73-31-40 (450 AB) Nyjer Morgan ADP 378

Inside the Projection

Davis has been cutting down on Strike Outs the last few years (increased contact percentages) and really showed improvement after April last season. Excluding the first month of the 2010, Davis cut his K Rate down to 13.6%. The above projection used a 14.3% K%, leaving a little room for upside. Speaking of upside, the 600 projected At Bats could be closer to 650 considering his Walk Rate is about the same as Juan Pierre’s. The above projection also used a .330 BABIP (.326 career BABIP). Rajai is my No.21 OF, which will likely be higher than anyone has him ranked and I feel there is room for more production. Call me crazy if you want, but this is going to be Rajai’s best season to date and I’m going to be on board the bandwagon the airplane. The rest of you can roll with the wanna-be superhero Jason Michael Bourn.

I think Jacoby Ellsbury is providing value at his ADP, but there’s no reason to draft him when you can get your Stolen Base fix from a much cheaper source. Let Wesley Snipes give you a word of advice when it comes to playing roulette with your speedy Outfielders. Always bet on black! If there’s one thing Wesley knows, it’s about stealing. Getting away with it… not so much. Wesley took off from first and kept running all the way to Africa. Alright, I got to get to bed. Watch for the OF ranks later today.

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