DEREKholland3

Waiver of Liability Pt 2

“Yo MDS, more people should give themselves a Dutch Oven!”

Round Two of the Liability of Waiver post. This time we’re dealing with Starting Pitchers and a few Relievers. We have rookies, the underappreciated, comeback attempts and then there is R.A. Dickey. He snuck in somehow. Security was breached, Virgil isn’t the bodyguard I pay him to be. While I check into that, you check into some Pitchers who are available in 50% or more of Yahoo! leagues.

Starting Pitching

Michael Pineda, Sea (32%) The No.13 prospect in all of baseball is pitching at Safeco Park. That’s all you need to know in order to add Pineda. He spent three seasons in the minors (325 IP), striking out 9.25 batters per nine and walking 2.08 per nine. The only issue here will be the Run Support from the Mariners lineup and his health. Pineda missed three months of baseball in ’09 because of elbow soreness.
Brandon Beachy, Atl (28%) Beachy is a heart breaker. People who drafted Mike Minor may never forgive him, but Beachy is also a mender of broken hearts. You just need to initiate contact. Beachy generates plenty of Whiffs with his dropping Curveball and Change-up that has mucho horizontal movement. His minor league numbers were superb (9.83 K/9 and 2.11 BB/9). There’s no reason to wait; click add, drop Javier Vazquez and watch your league submit to your will.
Bud Norris, Hou (11%) Bud Norris just opened two K-Fu Academies located on the faces of the Phillies and Marlins. Thirteen strikeouts in ten innings and he walked only three. He’s checking in with an 11.70 K/9 and a 2.70 BB/9. The base hits and home runs will slow down. A 25% HR/FB% and .320 BABIP with a 7% LD% is considered bad luck. Here’s the deal. Bud Norris has massive potential. If he improves his control he could make a leap not unlike Clayton Kershaw. This is what we call a low risk, high reward play.
Gavin Floyd, ChW (49%) Floyd is better than people think. The K/9, BB/9 and GB% are all there. The issues lie in his shoulder and the defense behind him. The 11.9% HR/FB% doesn’t do excessive damage to Floyd’s numbers because of the small percentage of Fly Balls allowed (35.7%).
Scott Baker, Min (28%) Baker is a lot like Floyd, except he allows more Fly Balls and his elbow is the worrisome body part. Us Twinkie fans are hoping Target Field helps suppress the Home Run problems that have plagued Baker in the past. It’s not working so far. Frowney face.
Johnny Cueto, Cin (49%) Expected back in two to three weeks.
Erik Bedard, Sea (27%) You know the drill. Prepare for sixty solid innings.
Derek Holland, Tex (18%) 8.25 K/9, 2.25 BB/9 and prospect pedigree.
James McDonald, Pit (11%) Above average K potential, needs to improve control.
Alexi Ogando, Tex (14%) The ERA and WHIP aren’t fully supported, but he’s solid.
Jeremy Guthrie, Bal (43%) May be the league’s best at preventing Base Hits.
Justin Masterson, Cle (15%) I love the 15.8% career Line Drive Percentage.
Anibal Sanchez, Fla (46%) Suffering from BABIP blues (.487 BABIP vs 15% LD%).
Chris Narveson, NYM (7%) The K/9 will regress, but he’s solid.
Carlos Carrasco, Cle (2%) Could end up being the AL version of Jason Hammel.
Matt Harrison, Tex (24%) The K/9 is up (7.07), the BB/9 is down (1.93), the LD% is microscopic (7.9%), the Ground Balls are plenty (50%) and he hasn’t allowed a Home Run yet. I thought Cliff Lee left for Philly. Harrison is pitching with a little more heat and it’s nice to see more Change-ups and less Sliders from him. The early results agree. I’m not expecting a miracle, but it’s nice to see some substance behind the outstanding start. Pick him up and see what happens.
Jeff Niemann, TB (9%) Think Carl Pavano tier production.
R.A. Dickey, NYM (35%) He doesn’t hurt your team’s UCL count.
Chris Tillman, Bal (8%)  His .185 BABIP will likely be .300 before too long.
Dallas Braden, Oak (20%) More Carl Pavano tier production.
Kyle McClellan, StL (31%) A poor man’s Gavin Floyd.
Jake Arrieta, Bal (2%) Possibly a poor man’s Gavin Floyd this season.
Phil Coke, Det (2%) This might not end well.
Esmil Rogers, Col (5%)  Showed promise in A+ and AA ball, could stick.
Clayton Richard, SD (33%) Type of pitcher who needs Petco and a good defense.
Ivan Nova, NYY (15%) Possibly Carl Pavano tier production. Unlikely.
Wade Davis, TB (18%) What happened to the missing strikeouts?
Kevin Correia, Pit (9%) Maybe you’ll get a 1.25 WHIP out of this, doubtful though.

Relief Pitching 

Kyle Farnsworth, TB (30%) Kyle is up 2-0 on Joel Peralta/Jake McGee and he hasn’t walked anyone in four appearances. His BB/9 wasn’t bad in ’08 and ’09 (3.32) and it was much improved in ’10 (2.64). There is a solid chance (I’d say 59%) of Farnsworth running away with this, but Peralta and McGee are worth stashing.  
Koji Uehara, Bal (34%) Three strong showings, Gregg will implode at some point.
Chris Sale, ChW (43%) Will pick up a Save here and there, excellent WHIP/ERA.
Jon Rauch (43%) and Octavio Dotel (7%) Francisco is not a specimen of health.
Evan Meek, Pit (22%) Hanrahan will be traded like Dotel was in ’10.
Sergio Romo, SF (16%) Wilson has struggled, ERA/WHIP boost.
Joaquin Benoit, Det (15%) 0.68 WHIP, 1.34 ERA, 75 K (60.1 IP) in ’10.

Waiver of Liability Part One

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