I will be avoiding David Wright as best I can this season. Why? Mainly b/c I had him on a team last year and I hated him, but there are other reasons too. Seriously tho, how does someone spend a late rd 1 – early rd 2 pick on a player they hated last season? He’s not coming at much of a discount after failing to live up to the expectations every one had for him.
Issues: First and foremost, it’s the home run total of 10. Ten! It’s not good when Jason Bartlett hit more HR than your 1st Rd pick. He also knocked in 50 less runners, his RBI dropped from 124 to 72. Wright struck out more often, his K% jumped from 18.8% to 26.2%, but his AVG didnt fall off at all. Why? b/c his BABIP was inflated. While he usually has a high BABIP (career .350, from his nice LD%), you cannot expect him to repeat his .400 clip. If that K% stays at 26%, his AVG will drop below .300, that’s a million dollar guarantee. The one thing that disturbs me most are his quotes after the Matt Cain bean ball incident, this is from Roto Wire:
“News: Wright, who went 0-for-4 in the Mets’ 3-1 loss to Atlanta Tuesday, admitted last week that the the Matt Cain fastball, which struck him on the side of his batting helmet on August 5 and gave him a concussion, still is “in the back of his head” when he’s at the plate, the NY Newsday reports.
Analysis: Wright feels himself flinching more than usual when pitches come inside, adding “I think it’s just kind of instinctive that you see a ball coming up there that your first thought is to get out of the way rather than give it a split-second to see if it’s a breaking ball or fastball. I think that will hopefully weed itself out and gradually go away where you feel comfortable that you can give it that split-second longer, see what it is and still trust yourself that you can get out of the way.” Wright is now 18-for-77 with two home runs and 13 RBI in September, but those numbers are also propped up by his two-homer, six RBI day on September 12. For Wright to return to elite status, he needs to get back to being fearless at the plate, something that will hopefully occur before the 2010 season.”
Reasons for Hope: Ok, his HR total will increase. He was very unlucky with his HR/FB%. The new ballpark doesn’t help, but it alone cannot be the reason for a 10% drop in HR/FB%. In 2007/2008 he was rocking over 16%, in 2009 he posted a measley 6.9% HR/FB. That will not happen again. Also, getting Carlos Beltran and Jason Bay in the lineup should allow David to see better pitches. As for the RBI drop, it’ll help having Jose Reyes back in the leadoff spot. I have doubts about his 26% k rate, his O-Swing% and O-Contact% were not too far off from his norms so a bounceback is likely.
MDS says: Personally, I believe he needs to stop waxing his forehead and bring on some caveman eyebrows if he wants to hit 30 HR again. Maybe the Mets should call up Mel Brooks and get the Dark Helmet if Wright wants to forget about the Matt Cain incident. In the end, I don’t like paying full price for someone who disappointed, so someone else can have him. David Wright needs a lot of corrections to happen and get his confidence back for him to pay off for his owners.