Can those red socks save Murray from DDNTL?
Photo Credit: scott mecum
Death, taxes and injured fantasy stars – these are some of life’s certainties.
Make no mistake about it, injuries WILL play a major role in fantasy football this year, and the more you know, the better your odds are of hoisting that virtual trophy. That’s where I come in. It’s time for the 2013 Don’s Do-Not-Trust List © (DDNTL): Fantasy Football Draft Edition. As a licensed and practicing physical therapist with years of experience treating a wide spectrum of sports related injuries (and a fantasy obsessed lunatic like the rest of you), I have the skills to steer you in the right direction.
I’ll be discussing a number of players with injury concerns and whether or not I “trust” them to provide draft day value. To be clear: just because a player makes my list does not necessarily mean he’s not worth drafting; in fact, in some cases you can get great discounts if you pick your spots carefully. Any ADP data is courtesy of MockDraftCentral.com. While I’ll be covering a lot of players here, if there’s anyone I missed that you want to hear about, feel free to leave a comment or email me at email@example.com and I’ll help a brother (or sister) out.
More after the jump:
Bill Parcells used to refer to former Cowboys RB Julius Jones as a Corvette because “he looks great on the road but never gets out of the garage.” That pretty much sums up Murray’s brief pro career to date as he’s missed significant time in each of his first two seasons. After opening eyes to his potentially elite skill-set with record breaking performances as a rookie in 2011, Murray’s season ended when he suffered a fractured ankle and high ankle sprain. Entering the 2012 season, Murray was a popular breakout candidate who was drafted early and promptly failed to meet expectations as he was again hobbled by a leg injury, this time to his foot. After missing six weeks with the foot injury, Murray returned with mixed results, looking more plodding than powerful. Murray had a reputation for being injury-prone out of college as well, dealing with hamstring and knee injuries and seeing his draft stock slip as a result.
Anyone who invested in Murray last season likely will avoid him this year, and I can’t say I blame you. He has a punishing, upright rushing style that leaves his legs susceptible to injury, and he’s lived up to the fragile billing. Murray makes my list easily right? Not so fast.
Despite being labeled injury prone in college, this is a player that missed a total of four games in his four-year college career. He’s missed time with significant injuries his first two seasons as a pro, but he’s coming off the first offseason of his professional career where he wasn’t rehabbing an injury and could just focus on getting ready for football. Murray is also just 25 years old and doesn't have a ton of mileage on his body. He offers an imposing blend of power and speed that gives him elite potential if he can stay healthy. Murray is also tied to good offense in Dallas that has upgraded its offensive line, and the coaching staff has gone on record as saying they will be more run-oriented this season. While he’s certainly proven to be a risky proposition, I think this is the year to take a chance on him with health finally on his side entering the season. With his current ADP around pick 40 (17th RB), he offers a better balance of floor and ceiling, and better bang for your buck, than the likes of Montee Ball and David Wilson, both of whom are being taken around the same time. Let’s not forget this guy was being drafted in the first round in a lot of leagues last year. The talent is there and the situation is as good as it’s been for him in his career. I’m not suggesting you reach for him since anything earlier than his current ADP is too risky given his track record. However, I’m willing to give Murray one more year to prove he can stay on the field.