Philip_Rivers_2006-10-01

NFL Real Talk: Week Six


A Rivers Runs Through Shit
Photo Credit: Keith Allison

 

NFL Real Talk functions as a cumulative fantasy football resource for gamers looking to sniff out every advantage they can week-to-week. Here, you will find recommendations for players to buy/hold/sell/drop, as well as matchups for you to exploit. 

 

With five weeks in the books, it’s time to switch things up to keep shit fresh around here. After all, simply telling you what to do with flavor-of-the-week players (whether that flavor rocked or sucked) only takes you so far. After the first five weeks, there really aren’t a ton of moves you can be making to drastically improve your team outside of trades (and depending on the league you’re in, that is easier said than done with the number of tightwads chilling in the fantasy sports circuit).

 

So for this week, “Buzzy Brohams,” we will focus solely on the most newsmaking-est players of the first chunk of the fantasy football season. More changes are sure to come as the weeks chug along, but for now, I’ll break y’all in nice and easy. 

 

More after the jump:

 

Buzzy Brohams: Ditch, Grab, Or Pawn

The players here are generating ample buzz… though not all of it is good. Here, we’ll tell you whether to hold, acquire, or straight up ditch the dudes listed below.

 

Philip Rivers 

“Many folks don’t trust Rivers, but the new coaching staff is employing a ‘small ball’ passing game that puts an emphasis on letting Rivers make high-percentage throws and take what’s given to him. That should suit Rivers a lot better, as he’s spent the last two years forcing the issue more often than Ben Roethlisberger in a public bathroom.” -Starbonell, 8/7/13

Those were my thoughts on Rivers coming into the season, and right now he’s second in the league in passing TDs and completion percentage. Granted, I didn’t think he’d be this nasty, but I’m going to go ahead and take some of the credit anyway. They key thing people want to know is whether he’s a hold or sell-high guy. While I love to capitalize on a player’s value when it is at its peak, I have to say that I think he’s worth holding onto. For starters, no one will give you a fair price on Rivers. Opposing owners will try to say that he can’t keep this up and will try to acquire him on the cheap. I can’t blame them, since a five week sample size often pales in comparison to two seasons of shoddy work. That said, this offense clearly fits Rivers like a glove. He’s hitting up all different kinds of WRs, spreading more often than your mom during peak hours. He’ll probably slow down a little, but make no mistake about it, Rivers is a bonafide QB1 for fantasy purposes.

Verdict: Hold Jerry, Hold!

 

Jordan Cameron

Killah Cam is currently sitting as the third overall TE in fantasy and has five scores in five games (he’s also averaging 6.6 catches and 79.2 yards per game). He’s obviously been a tremendous value pick for those of you who drafted him. But is his value about to take a major hit with Brian Hoyer out for the year? Not likely. For starters, Cameron killed it in Weeks One and Two with Brandon Weeden throwing passes (and this is without Josh Gordon stretching the field and opening things up across the middle). I’d be more concerned about teams game-planning better for Cameron now that the whole league knows what he can do, but again, the Browns have Josh Gordon, which should make it hard for teams to double the deep ball and the middle of the field. I think Cameron can fetch a nice haul if you wanted to sell him, but why would you? He’s a lock to finish the season as an elite fantasy TE, and those guys aren’t exactly growing on trees.

Verdict: I got holds… in different area codes.

 

Trent Richardson

Your boy Chief Jay Strong-Dough has been a T-Rich supporter since he came in the league, but after five weeks of shoddy fantasy production, I can’t pretend that Richardson hasn’t been one of the bigger first round disappointments in fantasy. Things seem to lining up nicely for him to enjoy a better second half. Ahmad Bradshaw is out for the year, but T-Rich still has some hurdles to climb. People underestimate how complicated joining a new offensive system is. Richardson is at a particular disadvantage as he didn’t even get the luxury of learning a new offense during the offseason and practicing the playbook in training camp. Dude literally is months behind in terms of his knowledge of the playbook, and don’t think that hasn’t been part of the reason for why his Indy numbers have been stagnant. On top of that, Donald Brown is lurking around and may steal some choice touches (he had a three-yard TD last week). I think Richardson is an every-week fantasy play because he’s an NFL starter at RB, but I think people are overestimating his rest-of-the-season production. Yeah the dude has a sick amount of talent, but let’s just focus on the facts for this season: he’s trying to learn a new offense in the middle of the season, he has a shoddy offensive line, and he’s averaging a pathetic 3.1 YPC. This ain’t his year. Savvy fantasy owners should be looking for ways to unload him on a desperate-for-RBs owner.

Verdict: Pawn of the dead.

 

CJ Spiller

Another first-round RB who has massively disappointed, Spiller is actually being out-produced by his “backup.” It’s interesting because we all knew Fred Jackson would get some work in a run-first offense, but for Spiller to have one more touch than F-Jax is crazy. On top of that, Jackson is getting the red zone work and more use in the passing game. Granted, Spiller is banged up, but that still doesn’t justify the even split in touches. I’d like to think Spiller will become a bigger part of the offense as he gets healthy, but there has to be a bigger role in the passing game in order for his fantasy value to be truly salvaged. This is one of the harder players to predict going forward, but because of the price you had to pay on draft day to get him, I say live or die with CJ Spiller on your roster. He can’t get any worse, and if his ankle begins to heal up, I do expect his production to increase greatly.

Verdict: Hold, if only because you won’t get anything back that can replicate his potential numbers.

 

Roddy White

What’s fascinating here is that no one really thought much about his ankle sprain coming into the season. He didn’t receive any value downgrades in any of the leagues I was in, since everyone just assumed it was a virtual non-issue. What a crock of shit that turned out to be. Now White is also dealing with a hamstring issue, making him a certified bench warmer for the near future. A lot of people probably think he’ll continue to be useless in what’s shaping up to be a lost season for the Falcons, but I’m not so sure. The Julio Jones injury is a huge boon to White’s value. Let’s face it, Atlanta’s receiving corps sucks after White and Jones, so there will be opportunities aplenty if White ever gets healthy. It’s a huge “if” at this point, but considering how cheap you can probably get him for, I think White is a solid buy for owners cruising along who can afford to stash a WR on their bench.

Verdict: Bargain-bin buy.

 

Knowshon Moreno

I actually drafted Moreno in half of my leagues and touted him as the best RB Denver had to offer to fantasy owners. Though he has to share the playing time in the Broncos’ backfield, Moreno is getting his (four TDs and averaging 91.6 rush/receiving yards per game). I fully expect Moreno to keep leading the Denver pack… until his health finally does him in. Come on, you don’t really think that a RB who couldn’t stay on the field even as a backup for three years is all of sudden ready to complete a full season as a starter? I’ve long loved Moreno’s ability to cut and make plays out of the backfield, but the biggest problem with him has always been the injuries. He’s been pretty lucky to date, but that shit will run out soon. I’d look to sell sky-high on Moreno now, as most people would probably solicit their own mothers as prostitutes to get a piece of the Denver offense on their fantasy team.

Verdict: Catch a case of sickle-sell disease.

 

Matchup Macking
Got a QB platoon or a start/sit quandary on your roster? Or perhaps you enjoy to dabble in weekly money leagues? Whatever your vice, you’ll find matchup plays that will tickle your roster’s fancy. This is where borderline options come to thrive (or die). Points are based on default Yahoo! settings with 0.5 points-per-reception.

 

Start ‘Em If You Got ‘Em

This week’s recommendations

QB – Joe Flacco vs. GB

WR – Mike Williams vs. PHI

RB - Pierre Thomas @NE

TE – Greg Olsen @MIN

 

Last week’s points-per-recommendation (Yahoo! standard scoring with .5 PPR)

QB = 19.94 points (Terrelle Pryor)

WR = 24.60 points (Rueben Randle)

RB = 9.60 points (Maurice Jones-Drew)

TE = 7.40 points (Sean McGrath)

 

This season’s points-per-recommendation 

QB = 16.79 points (three recommendations)

WR = 15.60 points (three recommendations) 

RB = 17.73 points (three recommendations) 

TE = 3.67 points (three recommendations) 

 

Sits ‘N Giggles

This week’s recommendations

QB – Geno Smith vs. PIT

WR – Larry Fitzgerald @SF

RB - Rashad Jennings @KC

TE – Kyle Rudolph vs. CAR

 

Last week’s points-per-recommendation (Yahoo! standard scoring with .5 PPR)

QB = 7.7 points  (Carson Palmer)

WR = 0.0 points (Marlon Brown- DID NOT PLAY)

RB = 19.8 points (Jacquizz Rodgers)

TE = 6.90 points (Scott Chandler)

 

This season’s points-per-recommendation 

QB = 9.81 points (three recommendations) 

WR = 19.75 points (two recommendations) 

RB = 15 points (three recommendations) 

TE = 4.07 points (three recommendations) 

Starbonell

About Starbonell

Starbonell is the co-founder of Sons of Roto and one of the most insightful and colorful fantasy analysts in the game. Mixing intelligent and well-researched advice with an entertaining style of writing that is easy to digest, Starbonell is the king of info-tainment.

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