joshFreeman

Quarterback ADP Data

You will take their lives, but you can never take the fantasy community’s Freeman!
Photo Credit: Jason Edwards

With our composite QB rankings in and the Starbonell Station QB Preview podcast scheduled for Saturday at 7 PM Central I thought it’d be a nice time to talk Quarterback ADP numbers. We’re comparing our rankings to Average Draft Position data from four sites: Yahoo, ESPN, Mock Draft Central and Fantasy Football Calculator. Some quarterbacks are overrated, some are underrated and some of these numbers are just funny. Let’s do this.

Rank: composite ranking from SoR
AVG: average ADP from the four data bases
Yahoo: ADP data from their public leagues
ESPN: ADP data from their leagues
MDC: ADP data from MockDraftCentral.com
FFC: ADP data from FantasyFootballCalculator.com (past 24 hours)

Player  Rank       AVG     Yahoo      ESPN      MDC      FFC 
Drew Brees 1 22 (3) 17 (3) 15 (4) 22 (3) 34 (6)
Michael Vick 2 7 (1) 9 (2) 6 (1) 7 (1) 7 (1)
Aaron Rodgers 3 9 (2) 8 (1) 6 (2) 10 (2) 12 (2)
Philip Rivers 4 29 (6) 23 (6) 25 (6) 39 (6) 30 (4)
Peyton Manning 5 25 (5) 18 (4) 21 (5) 27 (4) 34 (5)
Tom Brady 6 23 (4) 21 (5) 14 (3) 33 (5) 24 (3)
Tony Romo 7 49 (7) 35 (7) 45 (7) 69 (7) 48 (7)
Matt Schaub 8 60 (8) 54 (9) 47 (8) 80 (9) 59 (8)
Matt Ryan 9 72 (10) 57 (10) 62 (10) 104 (11) 63 (9)
B.Roethlisberger 10 63 (9) 51 (8) 56 (9) 72 (8) 72 (10)
Eli Manning 11 94 (12) 91 (11) 85 (12) 108 (13) 90 (12)
Matt Stafford 12   105 (14)   97 (13)   116 (17)     106 (12)     102 (13)  
Joe Flacco 13  104 (13)    107 (15)   91 (13) 114 (15) 102 (14)
Josh Freeman 14 87 (11) 94 (12) 69 (11) 101 (10) 84 (11)
Jay Cutler 15 111 (15) 104 (14) 112 (16) 110 (14) 119 (17)
Sam Bradford 16 113 (16) 114 (18) 99 (14) 130 (16) 108 (15)
Kevin Kolb 17 113 (17) 114 (19) 112 (15) 171 (20) 112 (16)
Kyle Orton 18 132 (19) 121 (24) 138 (22) 209 (27) 138 (19)
Matt Cassel 19 129 (18) 120 (23) 118 (18) 149 (17) 128 (18)
Mark Sanchez 20 148 (21) 113 (17) 125 (19) 202 (23) 150 (21)
Ryan Fitzpatrick 21 150 (23) 131 (27) 146 (24) 168 (19) 154 (23)
Donovan McNabb 22 139 (20) 117 (20) 129 (20) 163 (18) 147 (20)
Chad Henne 23 NA 170 (32) NA NA
Jason Campbell 24 NA 147 (25) 210 (31) NA
Colt McCoy 25 110 (16) 170 (29) 210 (30) NA
Alex Smith 26 NA 170 (30) NA NA
Tarvaris Jackson 27 NA 170 (31) 208 (26) NA
David Garrard 28 148 (22) 125 (26) 142 (23) 176 (21) NA
Cam Newton 29 152 (24) 117 (21) 131 (21) 209 (29) 150 (22)
Matt Hasselbeck 30 NA 151 (26) 210 (32) NA
Andy Dalton 31 NA 170 (33) NA NA
Rex Grossman NA 170 (40) 209 (28) NA
John Beck NA 170 (39) NA NA

Quick Notes: I didn’t use the MDC ADP data for Kevin Kolb and Kyle Orton because their numbers have a long history attached to them, meaning most drafts occurred while Kolb was in Philly and people assumed Tim Tebow knew how to throw a football. The 24 hours of data from FFC comes from mock drafts done between August 9th and August 10th. The 24-hour ADP data is choice for unearthing trends from recent signings, trades, injuries, etc.

Drew Brees isn’t getting his usual love from FFC. I’m sure Colston’s troublesome knee isn’t earning Brees any brownie points in our war rooms. The thing to remember with Brees is that he hides behind a good o-line and can turn almost any WR into a fantasy asset. Look for Robert Meachem and Jimmy Graham to pick up the slack if Colston can’t make it onto the field.

Tony Romo has straight 7s across the board. He is the buffer between the elite and the rest. He’s more elite than he is a member of “the rest”. Two of us (Starbs and Eric) ranked Romo inside our Top 6 QB. I’d love to get the value from Romo that his MDC ADP (69) provides. 

Matt Ryan isn’t getting any adoration from the legions at MDC (ADP 104, 11th QB off the board). We have him ranked higher than most crowds, especially myself (8th QB). I’m expecting Ryan to have a great season throwing to Roddy White, Julio Jones (who looked great against the Dolphins on Friday) and Tony Gonzalez as he continues to take over the offense.

Ben Roethlisberger is going in the 5th Rd at Y! and ESPN. That’s too early. Three of us had him ranked in the double digits, I went as low as 15th. I’m not afraid to slap him with the overrated label, as I did here. You won’t find him on any of my teams.

Matt Stafford must have made a few enemies at ESPN. The 17th QB off the board at pick 116? Kevin Kolb ahead of him? I think he’s slightly underrated at most sites, but ESPN is taking it to a whole new level. Stafford is healthy, is talented, has weapons everywhere and looked great on Friday (6 of 7, 71 yards, 2 TD).

Joe Flacco should provide nice value at his ADP. The team lost Derrick Mason and Todd Heap to free agency, but they traded for Lee Evans and Ed Dickson has plenty of potential as a receiving tight end. Evans provides the vertical threat the team (and Flacco’s big arm) needs. Flacco threw for 24 TD against 5 INT during the team’s final 14 games so there’s no doubt he can get on a roll and indulge the masses.

Josh Freeman is overrated. We have him as our 14th ranked QB and he’s going off the board between 10 and 12. What he did last year was commendable (25 TD vs 6 INT), but five of those TD came in one game. I doubt Mike Williams can haul in 11 TD if he records only 65 receptions again. Josh Freeman is an expensive version of Ryan Fitzpatrick. I said it.

Mark Sanchez has himself a cult following at Yahoo. If you’re looking for an answer to why his ADP is skewed from the rest of the data it’s in his ownership rate. Sanchez is rostered in 53% of Y! leagues. The Mark Sanchez fan club isn’t taking any risks with their heart throb, they’re reaching for him.

Ryan Fitzpatrick is underrated at most venues. What he did coming into the 2010 season as a backup was praiseworthy. I don’t care if Lee Evans is in Baltimore now, he totaled only 578 yards and 4 TD last season. Fitzy and the 6’5 (217 lb) David Nelson appeared to be in sync towards the end of the season. After taking reps with the backups Fitzy came in and threw for 3,000 yards and ran for another 269 yards over 13 games. The product of Harvard will come into this season fully prepared as the Bills starting QB and look to continue his rapport with Stevie Johnson. I’m loving the price tag that dangles from his spurs that jingle jangle. 

Donovan McNabb… I’m at a loss of words, all I can do is shake my head. Donovan’s time in Washington was not well spent (14 TD vs 15 INT) and the situation in Minnesota isn’t much better. After releasing Bryant McKinnie the o-line is one of the league’s worst and there isn’t much in terms of aerial weapons. Percy Harvin has to prove he is past his migraine issues, Bernard Berrian blows and Vinsanthe Shiancoe fell off a cliff last season. McNabb will be 35-years old in November and hasn’t thrown for 25 TD since 2004. If that’s not enough to convince you of McNabb’s lameness just think of it this way: he was traded so that Rex Grossman could start.

Colt McCoy has a 110 ADP at Yahoo, but he’s owned in only 3% of leagues. There isn’t much to do in Cleveland these days besides imbibe in heavy amounts of alcohol and draft Colt McCoy. Cleveland doesn’t rock, but Cleveland fans do.

David Garrard is being overdrafted at Y!, ESPN and MDC. Mike Sims-Walker is gone and all that’s left is Mike Thomas and Marcedes Lewis. Last year was the first time Garrard threw for more than 18 TD. With the team looking to run as often as possible it’s highly unlikely for Garrard to repeat the success he had last season. He’s already hurt (back) and if the team fails to win games they could turn to Blaine Gabbert, the Jags QB of the future.

Cam Newton hasn’t technically won the starting QB job in Carolina, but that’s not stopping people from drafting him. I don’t think he’ll have much trouble beating out Jimmy Claussen or Derek Anderson, but the team will employ a run-heavy gameplan to lessen the load on Newton’s shoulders. I’m not counting on the rookie (who has been asked to change his mechanics) to make an impact this year. Maybe his ADP numbers are being affected by keeper/dynasty leagues.

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